Vol. 4 No. 10 My wine resolutions for 2019

I run across lots of stories and facts while working on my book project: Wine and Passion. So, in keeping with that theme, I will share some thoughts I have about what wine to buy, where to buy it, and some shocking data. Here goes:

For the past five years or so, the only price group for wine that is growing is the $10-20 range. If I had a winery and it was economically feasible I would set a list price of $19.95. According to website Morning Consult, and reported on Wine Industry Insight, 62% of Americans spend between $8 and$15 on a bottle of wine and only 6% spend more than $21!!! It breaks down this way: 18% spend $3-8; 35%  $8-12; 27% spend $12-15%; 15% $16-20; and only 6% spend more than $21. Think about that. One of my tips is this: one night a week if you are drinking Two Buck Chuck, try a $10 bottle of wine; if you like it better start drinking that, and now try a $20 bottle of wine. Again, if you like it more, make that your regular wine, but next try a $30 wine, and so on. My guess is you will max out around $35 and if you can get one of those on sale for say $25 Voila!!!

Why not more? Mainly because over 80% of wines are consumed with 48 hours of purchase! So you won’t get the higher quality you are paying for without letting it at least ‘rest’ for a month or so before drinking, and the highest priced wines are made to be cellared (temperature controlled or at least a stable passive), for a year or more.

I discussed this with Kevin Zraly, author of The Windows on the World Complete Wine Course and he shared his formula with me: I want to drink a $10 bottle of wine that tastes like a $25 bottle; a $25 bottle that tastes like a $50 bottle; and a $50 bottle that tastes like a $100 bottle. It can be done!

There is also a saying: we drink white wines too cold and red wines too warm. It’s true! A cold rather than chilled white will not release its aromatics fully. That is why it is generally recommended that you chill them for no more than twenty minutes. As for reds where cellar temperature is normally 54 degrees, somewhere around 60 is better but they should also be decanted to let them open up. Older vintages if decanted for too long with lose most of their characteristics.

Next, is buying wine from dedicated wine shops rather than the supermarket. You have no idea how long the wine has been on the markets shelf and most people pick the varietal and then a nice label. A wine shop will have people who will listen to what you like in a wine and steer you (hopefully) towards one that you will love or at least like. You are likely to pay a little more in these shops unless they are having a sale but you will know you are getting a quality wine. Large ‘big box’ wine stores like Total Wines or Beverages and More may offer a better price but does it matter that much if you are buying a single bottle? Perhaps for a case where it might equal a free bottle, but don’t we want to support our friends and neighbors? I think so!

Then there is buying wine from a big winery that might produce 50,000-100,000 cases vs a small one that might make 15,000 or less. You may pay more but you will again be supporting a small producer who likely pays more attention to details. A corollary to this is visiting the wine country and choosing one of the big name wineries to visit. There, you will likely have a student or other part-time worker pouring as opposed to a small winery where you will meet a full-time employee who isn’t reading from a script, and you might even meet a winemaker or owner. Their passion will vastly improve your impression of the wine you are tasting.

Following that thread, consider that just two distributors (Southern Glazer Wine Distributors which represents 1,178 wineries sells and Republic National Distributing  which represents 7,581 wineries, and have revenues of $16.5 billion and $6.5 billion respectively according to Forbes Magazine and represent over 50% of all wine sold in the U.S.! Pity their small wineries who get lost in the shuffle as happened to a friend of mine’s wine. State laws are restrictive too, one of which says that you can’t ‘fire’ a distributor if he has any of your wine in inventory…so keep ONE case and you’ve got the winemaker…how unfair is that to both the winery and customers.

For this and other reasons, small wineries are trying to sell more of their wine thru wine clubs or the tasting room. Unfortunately, they have to sell to you at the retail price they listed, but at least you know the wine has been stored properly. Shipping can be expensive, even prohibitive but at times like the holidays, many offer free shipping, a way to get around the selling at retail laws. Only when a wine is in short supply and not being offered to distributors can they reduce the price to clear inventory. This is the trick with Total Wine’s ‘winery direct’ program. They buy up all of the wineries inventory of a varietal or vintage at bargain basement prices, then offer them to their customers at a low price but with a huge markup! Again, you don’t know how the wine has been stored or if it is fading (aka over the hill).

Here is one last statistic for you: three big wine companies, Constellation Brands, E. and J. Gallo, and Vintage Wine Estates, represent 70% of all wine purchased in the U.S. Combine this with the price profile and the future is not bright for small producers, and that is a tragedy.

Lastly, millennials price preferences are lower than their baby boomer parents who are retiring and therefore not spending as much for a bottle of wine. 2019 will definitely be an interesting year for the wine industry.

TB wishes you all a Happy New Year and a prosperous 2019.

(c) traderbillonwine.com

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traderbill

How did Trader Bill originate? It was conceived by me as a way of providing information summaries of global financial markets so that friends and associates could bring themselves up to speed on events and changing market conditions upon their arrival at work. In addition, it provides information on speakers and economic releases that day with consensus estimates and level of last release so that the reader is prepared to react, or knows how the market might react upon the release of information. Who is Trader Bill? Initially any reference to me was as ‘i’. This is to remove the aura of ego and to suggest that i am but a humble reporter, albeit with 35 years of investment experience. Investments are demanding of ego, however, or one would not feel that he was qualified to manage someone else’s money in the first instance. Therefore i needed an ‘alter-ego’. Like Winchell and Mahoney, Edgar Bergen and Charlie McCarthy and especially Trader Vic and Mai Tai’s! Why Trader Vic? Because he was a likeable man who delivered pleasure to his customers and knew exactly what their desires were. The reason for the alter ego became obvious once I introduced Trader Bill into my commentaries: people started asking what Trader Bill thought. They had never asked me what I thought before, but suddenly they wanted to know what TB thought! Now mind you they KNEW that I was Trader Bill but for some reason he became bigger than life. Maybe it was the small ‘I’? What does Trader Bill try to do?His goal is to educate from his years of experience. Consider that most of the traders and people managing investments weren’t even around in 1987 for the crash! Consider that Graham and Dodd, and even Warren Buffet are not relevant to them, too old hat. Their historical perceptions of markets and fundamentals (earnings, price/earnings ratios, bonds, debt service coverage) are irrelevant in this fast moving world. This is the NEW ECONOMY, or is it? How did your style originate?Years ago i found that i had a knack and talent for writing. In addition, i developed an ability to analyze market news about 15 years ago. It took the Crash of ‘87. Prior to that i was just listening to what others said about the economy. But bond yields had been soaring in ‘87 yet the stock market just kept hitting new highs. That was when i began to learn about markets. i have both a dry and witty sense of humor (some call it inane!). Therefore i attempt to make even the worst news somewhat amusing: whether it is the absurdity of an economic release, or the comments of a CEO. This is trading desk humor (or gallows humor). It isn’t politically correct but it does ease tension. Ironically, it is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel (in the Navy they say: it’s always darkest before it’s pitch black!), that allows you to be more objective in your analysis, as bad as a situation is there will still be a tomorrow! You will see that i practice three-dot journalism, a style made famous by San Francisco reporter Herb Caen, whom i idolized. At least to me it is effective. What is so special about your analysis?Frankly, i don’t know that it is special, but at least it beats “the market closed down today on profit taking.” What i do know is that most of what you read is spat out without considering whether or not it is rational, like the above statement. Is it right? Sometimes yes and sometimes no, and that is the key to what is different about my analysis: it is meant to make you think. Is Dan Rather right or is Trader Bill right? If it causes you to stop and think about it, regardless of whether you agree, i win! Because THAT is my goal…not to have you think i am a guru, got that? Bet you never heard that ANYWHERE before in my business! Instead they want you to think just how smart they are but remember in this business if you are right 60% of the time you ARE a genius! Another thing that is different is when i am wrong on an analysis i will tell you, not hope you forget what i said. So now you have the tools to do what the speculators and hedge funds do: challenge authority, and if you make money it is because YOU did it not me. i was just a tool, your flunky to do the grunt work and let you decide…course you could be wrong too but at least you looked at the big picture. But the goal is also to have fun! This shouldn’t be a business of hushed tones and grim faces. It is a living, breathing thing and nowhere else in the world do you have the odds as much in your favor as here. Just beware of the guy who wants to put his arm around you and tell you he is your friend. So there you have it. I hope you select me as one of your sources for market information. If you do I promise to work my best for your financial success. Trader Bill

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