Vol 3 No 4 How many wineries fit on the head of a pin?

Now that ole TB has got your attention, the real question is how many wineries are there in the U.S.? Answer: 8,702! That’s an increase of 5% over last year. As one would expect California leads the pack with 4,207! That should not be surprising – except the number is huge! Back to the totals: 7,061 are bonded wineries that make the wine on site, but there are also 1,641 ‘virtual’ wineries. Wine Institute

A bonded winery is licensed by the feds and has to have a specific space to store wines that have been taxed, so they can be open to inspection. A virtual winery is not in cyberspace as one might think, but make their wine in other wineries, especially ones that specifically make wine for several brands. Don’t scoff at these as many ‘cult’ wineries that produce a small number of cases, do this in order to make the operation feasible. Frankly, I was amazed there were that many, mostly in California, I am sure. Licensing is less strict for these although they have to keep the same records as other wineries.

Consider that going back to 1900-Prohibition there weren’t much more than 100 wineries in Napa Valley. Here is some data from the cited article for number of California and U.S. bonded wineries:

California       United States

1940                   474                  1,090      Just before start of WWII

1970                   240                     441      Beginning of Wine Boom

1997                1,011                  1,988      1st time Cal. >1,000

2004                2,059                  4,356      More than 2,000

2010                3,364                  7,626      More than 3,000

2014                4,285                10,417      1st time >10k for the U.S.

2017                4,202                  8,702      Likely some consolidation

If you find this interesting and would like to see more interesting facts, see  Wine Business data

Most of the increase in the 1970-1997 period, I believe, came from development of new growing areas in California (Sonoma County, Central Coast, North Coast, etc.), as well as Oregon and Washington.

Hope you found this interesting. TB started out just looking for a current number and look what he got!

Does anyone remember the wine theft at the French Laundry just before Christmas? They were caught due to an honest collector becoming suspicious after buying the wine and then going to authorities. Well, the main guy was sentenced in March, and, he admitted to another wine theft from a restaurant. So…what was his sentence? FIFTEEN Months jail time…and make restitution on $600,000. Good luck on that. I thought the punishment was supposed to fit the crime? What if he stole $50,000 from a bank? That would have been at least a ten year sentence!

Also, you may recall the fraudulent sale of wine futures by Premier Cru, an Oakland, California wine shop that has had trouble in the past. The wine inventory was sold from the store and received lower bids than expected. Now they have to divide up the proceeds between the victims…and you thought wine people was good people. Think again!

Think I’ll go have a couple of glasses of wine…my head is spinning!

TB

 

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traderbill

How did Trader Bill originate? It was conceived by me as a way of providing information summaries of global financial markets so that friends and associates could bring themselves up to speed on events and changing market conditions upon their arrival at work. In addition, it provides information on speakers and economic releases that day with consensus estimates and level of last release so that the reader is prepared to react, or knows how the market might react upon the release of information. Who is Trader Bill? Initially any reference to me was as ‘i’. This is to remove the aura of ego and to suggest that i am but a humble reporter, albeit with 35 years of investment experience. Investments are demanding of ego, however, or one would not feel that he was qualified to manage someone else’s money in the first instance. Therefore i needed an ‘alter-ego’. Like Winchell and Mahoney, Edgar Bergen and Charlie McCarthy and especially Trader Vic and Mai Tai’s! Why Trader Vic? Because he was a likeable man who delivered pleasure to his customers and knew exactly what their desires were. The reason for the alter ego became obvious once I introduced Trader Bill into my commentaries: people started asking what Trader Bill thought. They had never asked me what I thought before, but suddenly they wanted to know what TB thought! Now mind you they KNEW that I was Trader Bill but for some reason he became bigger than life. Maybe it was the small ‘I’? What does Trader Bill try to do?His goal is to educate from his years of experience. Consider that most of the traders and people managing investments weren’t even around in 1987 for the crash! Consider that Graham and Dodd, and even Warren Buffet are not relevant to them, too old hat. Their historical perceptions of markets and fundamentals (earnings, price/earnings ratios, bonds, debt service coverage) are irrelevant in this fast moving world. This is the NEW ECONOMY, or is it? How did your style originate?Years ago i found that i had a knack and talent for writing. In addition, i developed an ability to analyze market news about 15 years ago. It took the Crash of ‘87. Prior to that i was just listening to what others said about the economy. But bond yields had been soaring in ‘87 yet the stock market just kept hitting new highs. That was when i began to learn about markets. i have both a dry and witty sense of humor (some call it inane!). Therefore i attempt to make even the worst news somewhat amusing: whether it is the absurdity of an economic release, or the comments of a CEO. This is trading desk humor (or gallows humor). It isn’t politically correct but it does ease tension. Ironically, it is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel (in the Navy they say: it’s always darkest before it’s pitch black!), that allows you to be more objective in your analysis, as bad as a situation is there will still be a tomorrow! You will see that i practice three-dot journalism, a style made famous by San Francisco reporter Herb Caen, whom i idolized. At least to me it is effective. What is so special about your analysis?Frankly, i don’t know that it is special, but at least it beats “the market closed down today on profit taking.” What i do know is that most of what you read is spat out without considering whether or not it is rational, like the above statement. Is it right? Sometimes yes and sometimes no, and that is the key to what is different about my analysis: it is meant to make you think. Is Dan Rather right or is Trader Bill right? If it causes you to stop and think about it, regardless of whether you agree, i win! Because THAT is my goal…not to have you think i am a guru, got that? Bet you never heard that ANYWHERE before in my business! Instead they want you to think just how smart they are but remember in this business if you are right 60% of the time you ARE a genius! Another thing that is different is when i am wrong on an analysis i will tell you, not hope you forget what i said. So now you have the tools to do what the speculators and hedge funds do: challenge authority, and if you make money it is because YOU did it not me. i was just a tool, your flunky to do the grunt work and let you decide…course you could be wrong too but at least you looked at the big picture. But the goal is also to have fun! This shouldn’t be a business of hushed tones and grim faces. It is a living, breathing thing and nowhere else in the world do you have the odds as much in your favor as here. Just beware of the guy who wants to put his arm around you and tell you he is your friend. So there you have it. I hope you select me as one of your sources for market information. If you do I promise to work my best for your financial success. Trader Bill

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