Vol. 3 No. 2.5 some potpourri…

This will be short and sweet as not much of the rest of the trip related directly to wine, but you might find it of interest.

We drove from Calistoga to Jacksonville, Oregon the next day, in and out of heavy rains. When we crossed the Sacramento River near Williams on I-5, I had never seen the river so full. It was just before this that they became concerned that the Oroville Dam could collapse.

We stayed with my sister-in-law in Jacksonville, a town near Ashland but without so many tourists due to the Shakespeare Festival. Previously, we have gone with her to visit many of the Applegate wineries, and I was amazed that there are even more now.

She took me to Dancin Vineyards, the name coming from combining those of husband and wife owners, Dan and Cindy. It also tied in with Cindy’s love of dance. They have built a beautiful winery and restaurant and there are some scattered tables with umbrellas away from the building. Their focus is on pinot noir and chardonnay which they both love, their tastes having migrated from big red cabs. I recommend a stop to enjoy the winery and their award-winning wines, which also includes a port-like wine.

Our next stop was to visit family in Bend, Oregon, the brewpub capital of the USA. We tasted some great beers, visit a legal pot shop which was very clean and more like a jewelry store. We also had a great dinner at the Pine Ridge Inn, and is just a typical restaurant and bar in the front but the dining room in the rear is the place to be. It is highlighted by two huge pine trees growing in the center of the room through the ceiling. It is owned by Bill McCormick, one of the founders of McCormick & Schmicks after he sold his interest.

The next day we drove all the way to Seattle and other than some rush hour traffic at the end it was uneventful. We visited friends there, including our oldest friends who loaned us the car. There are a few things we did that might be of general interest.

First, stayed at the Hyatt on Lake Union, which has beautiful views of the lake. Second, we had a Sunday brunch at Bastile over in the town of Ballard, which is always fun to visit. Then we visited the new Starbuck’s Roastery, which is a pilot program that proved successful as a very high end coffee bar. It is reminiscent of Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory and thus a magnet for families. It ain’t cheap though, but a fun experience. They are opening one in New York City and in Shanghai in 2018…check it out.

Secondly, the guys went to a whiskey bar I have wanted to visit since hearing about it. A friends son and a world-class bartender have in a few short years created, Canon, in downtown Seattle, and rated the sixth best whiskey bar in the world. While the basic cocktails are typically priced, their specialties can run from the $15-20 range and for a few made with extremely old liquors, into the hundreds. But that is just the hook. All of us enjoyed our drinks, while sitting at the bar which I highly recommend because the bartenders are experts at making their most exotic cocktails. I had Sazerac Experience ($20) which was made in three variations: Cognac, Rye, and Cognac & Ry in combination. It was fantastic.

We drove with our friends back down to Portland where they left us at other friends home and continued on their way back home. They took us to Archery Summit Winery for a tasting and it turned out to be a tie-in for the book. The winery was the creation of Gary Andrus who also started Pine Ridge in Napa Valley. Due to a divorce the winery was sold and Gary started this project. He built the first wine caves in Oregon under basalt, and the tasting was held deep in the caves following a tour. Gary died and the winery was sold to an investment group but it runs pretty much the way he did. They are expensive pinot noirs but the closest I have ever found to Burgundy. It is expensive but a fantastic experience!

Lastly, we stopped on the way back at Domaine Drouhin, which also makes Burgundian pinot’s. It is a large winery and the wines, under the direction of Veronique Drouhin, are very nice, especially the two reserves, Laurene and Louisa, named after her two daughters. The latter is very limited and only available to club members.

It was an incredible trip despite the occasional torrential rains and after three and a half weeks, including catching a horrible cold the last day, we were ready for home. Interesting that the entire time we were gone it was warmer in Minnesota than on the West Coast!

 

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traderbill

How did Trader Bill originate? It was conceived by me as a way of providing information summaries of global financial markets so that friends and associates could bring themselves up to speed on events and changing market conditions upon their arrival at work. In addition, it provides information on speakers and economic releases that day with consensus estimates and level of last release so that the reader is prepared to react, or knows how the market might react upon the release of information. Who is Trader Bill? Initially any reference to me was as ‘i’. This is to remove the aura of ego and to suggest that i am but a humble reporter, albeit with 35 years of investment experience. Investments are demanding of ego, however, or one would not feel that he was qualified to manage someone else’s money in the first instance. Therefore i needed an ‘alter-ego’. Like Winchell and Mahoney, Edgar Bergen and Charlie McCarthy and especially Trader Vic and Mai Tai’s! Why Trader Vic? Because he was a likeable man who delivered pleasure to his customers and knew exactly what their desires were. The reason for the alter ego became obvious once I introduced Trader Bill into my commentaries: people started asking what Trader Bill thought. They had never asked me what I thought before, but suddenly they wanted to know what TB thought! Now mind you they KNEW that I was Trader Bill but for some reason he became bigger than life. Maybe it was the small ‘I’? What does Trader Bill try to do?His goal is to educate from his years of experience. Consider that most of the traders and people managing investments weren’t even around in 1987 for the crash! Consider that Graham and Dodd, and even Warren Buffet are not relevant to them, too old hat. Their historical perceptions of markets and fundamentals (earnings, price/earnings ratios, bonds, debt service coverage) are irrelevant in this fast moving world. This is the NEW ECONOMY, or is it? How did your style originate?Years ago i found that i had a knack and talent for writing. In addition, i developed an ability to analyze market news about 15 years ago. It took the Crash of ‘87. Prior to that i was just listening to what others said about the economy. But bond yields had been soaring in ‘87 yet the stock market just kept hitting new highs. That was when i began to learn about markets. i have both a dry and witty sense of humor (some call it inane!). Therefore i attempt to make even the worst news somewhat amusing: whether it is the absurdity of an economic release, or the comments of a CEO. This is trading desk humor (or gallows humor). It isn’t politically correct but it does ease tension. Ironically, it is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel (in the Navy they say: it’s always darkest before it’s pitch black!), that allows you to be more objective in your analysis, as bad as a situation is there will still be a tomorrow! You will see that i practice three-dot journalism, a style made famous by San Francisco reporter Herb Caen, whom i idolized. At least to me it is effective. What is so special about your analysis?Frankly, i don’t know that it is special, but at least it beats “the market closed down today on profit taking.” What i do know is that most of what you read is spat out without considering whether or not it is rational, like the above statement. Is it right? Sometimes yes and sometimes no, and that is the key to what is different about my analysis: it is meant to make you think. Is Dan Rather right or is Trader Bill right? If it causes you to stop and think about it, regardless of whether you agree, i win! Because THAT is my goal…not to have you think i am a guru, got that? Bet you never heard that ANYWHERE before in my business! Instead they want you to think just how smart they are but remember in this business if you are right 60% of the time you ARE a genius! Another thing that is different is when i am wrong on an analysis i will tell you, not hope you forget what i said. So now you have the tools to do what the speculators and hedge funds do: challenge authority, and if you make money it is because YOU did it not me. i was just a tool, your flunky to do the grunt work and let you decide…course you could be wrong too but at least you looked at the big picture. But the goal is also to have fun! This shouldn’t be a business of hushed tones and grim faces. It is a living, breathing thing and nowhere else in the world do you have the odds as much in your favor as here. Just beware of the guy who wants to put his arm around you and tell you he is your friend. So there you have it. I hope you select me as one of your sources for market information. If you do I promise to work my best for your financial success. Trader Bill

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